Figures as of September 2026 (STATEC); this page is rebuilt at every monthly release.
At observed prices (without new measures), simulating the mechanism gives a median of December 2026, in a P10–P90 range of November 2026 to February 2027 (2,000 simulated paths). The October 2026 tripartite measures aim at a trigger in early 2027: that is the political cap, and STATEC's firm forecast is expected on 4 November 2026.
The trigger itself is mechanical: a tranche falls as soon as the six-month average of the IPCN reaches the current due cote. As of September 2026, the average stands at 1,058.56 against a threshold of 1,064.75: 6.19 points to go.