In Luxembourg, salaries are indexed automatically: a +2.5% tranche kicks in as soon as the six-month moving average of prices reaches a legal threshold. This dashboard tracks that counter live, compares it to the threshold, and forecasts the next indexation — based on official STATEC data.
Each amber step is a trigger threshold — the threshold that triggers a tranche. They rise by exactly +2.5% one after another. The green curve is the six-month moving average of prices: when it crosses a step, the indexation is economically triggered. Dotted: its simulated trajectory under the central scenario (last 12 months' inflation, seasonal profile preserved).
The next threshold is calculated (last trigger threshold × 1.025): STATEC only publishes a trigger threshold when its tranche is triggered. The amber dots mark past crossings.
In the short term, the six-month moving average is partly written in advance: 5 of its 6 months are already published. Rather than extrapolating a slope — biased by base effects, such as the January sales dip dropping out of the window — we project the IPCN by replaying its seasonal profile under several inflation scenarios, then run the mechanism month by month up to the crossing.
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Today's IPCN (—) is above the six-month moving average: the latter will rise mechanically, even without new inflation. But the remainder still requires ≈ — % of price rises — at zero inflation, the threshold (—) stays out of reach. Range depending on the scenario: — → —.
of delay on the tranche triggered in — (applied in —, tripartite agreement). Under normal conditions, application follows the crossing by about — month — the payment date remains a political decision.
| Inflation scenario | Threshold — | Threshold — |
|---|
Method: IPCN projected via seasonal profile with annual drift (Im = Im−12 × (1+g)); the momentum scenario, anchored on 3 months, is propagated with smooth compounding to avoid a discontinuity at the join. Six-month moving average recomputed month by month. Estimates — neither official dates nor application dates.
External reference (5 August 2026): STATEC lowered its inflation forecast to 1.8% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027; in its central and low scenarios, “the next indexation tranche would come in Q3 2027”, and only an energy price surge like its high scenario would trigger one as early as Q4 2026. Source: STATEC, inflation forecast of 5 August 2026.
A forecast is only as good as its measured reliability. So we replay the method over the — most recent tranches: each time, we step back — months before the actual crossing, with only the data known at that date, and compare the prediction to the outcome.
| Threshold | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|
A tranche means +2.5% on salaries, overnight. Choose your point of view, enter an amount: the simulator quantifies the impact of the next tranche (estimated —) then projects it onto the following ones.
The 1st tranche is dated by the median of the simulations; the following ones are projected at the historical pace (~1 tranche every — months since 1985 — indicative only, future inflation will decide. +2.5% compounded at each tranche.
Every month, as soon as STATEC releases the IPCN: the new trigger probability and what it changes for your budget. One line, no spam.
Since —, the sliding wage scale has triggered — tranches — about one every — months. Cumulatively, they have raised the salary index by +— %. Indexation is not a rare event: it is an underlying force that every employer must budget for.
| Application date | Applicable index | Increase |
|---|
The applicable index is the index at which salaries are paid: each tranche multiplies it by 1.025.
The six-month moving average (green) smooths the monthly IPCN (blue). As long as monthly inflation stays above the average, the latter rises and moves closer to the threshold. This is the real engine of the counter — and what makes any forecast dependent on the next price figures.
Fiduciaries, payroll bureaus, media, HR intranets: the counter comes as an embeddable widget (one line of code, attribution included) and the full state of the calculation — average, thresholds, scenarios, probabilities — is served as open JSON.
<iframe src="https://index.sitraka.lu/widget.html"
width="340" height="190" style="border:none"></iframe>
The complete state of the counter, recomputed at every monthly STATEC release:
GET https://index.sitraka.lu/data/data.json
Source data CC0 (STATEC). For the widget and the JSON, attribution “Index.lu — Sitraka Forler” is requested. Co-branded version for your firm: email me.
Index.lu is not standalone: it is the 4th piece of a six-part series that turns Luxembourg's public data into decision-making tools. One and the same method — official sources, verified calculation, zero dependencies — applied to six fields.
Journalists, analysts, HR: take the figure, cite the source. The counter is updated at every STATEC release.