{"meta": {"last_ym": "2026-09", "date": "25 octobre 2026", "asof": "septembre 2026", "stale": false}, "now": {"ma": 1058.56, "cota": 992.24, "pending": 1064.75, "last_cote": 1038.79, "last_tranche": "2026-06-01", "last_tranche_fr": "juin 2026", "last_echeance_fr": "mai 2026", "wain_pct": 2.5, "gap_to_pending": 6.19, "gap_pct": 0.58, "pending_crossed": false, "pending_cross_month": null, "pending_cross_fr": null}, "rungs_past": [{"v": 988.75, "crossed": "2023-08"}, {"v": 1013.46, "crossed": "2025-04"}, {"v": 1038.79, "crossed": "2026-05"}], "ladder": [1064.75, 1091.36, 1118.64, 1146.6, 1175.26, 1204.64], "targets": [{"threshold": 1064.75, "crossed": false, "crossed_month": null}, {"threshold": 1091.36, "crossed": false, "crossed_month": null}, {"threshold": 1118.64, "crossed": false, "crossed_month": null}, {"threshold": 1146.6, "crossed": false, "crossed_month": null}, {"threshold": 1175.26, "crossed": false, "crossed_month": null}, {"threshold": 1204.64, "crossed": false, "crossed_month": null}], "forecast": {"threshold": 1064.75, "central_key": "y12", "central_ym": "2026-12", "central_fr": "décembre 2026", "p10_fr": "novembre 2026", "p90_fr": "février 2027", "n_sims": 2000, "p_cross_36m": 100, "drift_pct": 2.5, "probs": [{"label": "avant fin 2026", "pct": 62, "headline": false}, {"label": "avant juillet 2027", "pct": 97, "headline": true}, {"label": "avant fin 2027", "pct": 100, "headline": false}], "soonest_fr": "novembre 2026", "latest_fr": "juin 2027", "never_at_zero": false, "ipcn_gap_pct": -0.47, "pipeline_pct": 181, "ipcn_now": 1069.77}, "scenarios": {"thresholds": [1064.75, 1091.36], "rows": [{"key": "m3", "label": "Momentum 3 mois", "g_pct": 5.4, "range": {"1064.75": {"lo": "2026-11", "hi": "2026-11"}, "1091.36": {"lo": "2027-04", "hi": "2027-05"}}, "range_fr": {"1064.75": {"lo": "novembre 2026", "hi": "novembre 2026"}, "1091.36": {"lo": "avril 2027", "hi": "mai 2027"}}, "volatile": true}, {"key": "y12", "label": "Rythme réalisé sur 12 mois", "g_pct": 2.9, "range": {"1064.75": {"lo": "2026-12", "hi": "2027-03"}, "1091.36": {"lo": "2027-08", "hi": "2027-11"}}, "range_fr": {"1064.75": {"lo": "décembre 2026", "hi": "mars 2027"}, "1091.36": {"lo": "août 2027", "hi": "novembre 2027"}}, "volatile": false}, {"key": "bce", "label": "Objectif BCE", "g_pct": 2.0, "range": {"1064.75": {"lo": "2026-12", "hi": "2027-06"}, "1091.36": {"lo": "2027-12", "hi": "2028-07"}}, "range_fr": {"1064.75": {"lo": "décembre 2026", "hi": "juin 2027"}, "1091.36": {"lo": "décembre 2027", "hi": "juillet 2028"}}, "volatile": false}, {"key": "nulle", "label": "Inflation nulle", "g_pct": 0.0, "range": {"1064.75": {"lo": "2026-12", "hi": null}, "1091.36": null}, "range_fr": {"1064.75": {"lo": "décembre 2026", "hi": null}, "1091.36": null}, "volatile": false}]}, "proj_band": [{"ym": "2026-10", "lo": 1060.25, "hi": 1061.84, "mid": 1060.84}, {"ym": "2026-11", "lo": 1061.89, "hi": 1065.31, "mid": 1063.18}, {"ym": "2026-12", "lo": 1063.2, "hi": 1068.96, "mid": 1065.19}, {"ym": "2027-01", "lo": 1064.27, "hi": 1073.1, "mid": 1067.43}, {"ym": "2027-02", "lo": 1065.14, "hi": 1077.58, "mid": 1069.8}, {"ym": "2027-03", "lo": 1065.34, "hi": 1081.48, "mid": 1071.5}], "modulation": {"typical_lag": 1, "max_lag": 10, "max_crossed_fr": "juin 2022", "max_applied_fr": "avril 2023"}, "history": {"tranches": [{"date": "1985-08-01", "cota": 422.32}, {"date": "1986-07-01", "cota": 426.54}, {"date": "1987-01-01", "cota": 428.67}, {"date": "1988-12-01", "cota": 439.38}, {"date": "1989-09-01", "cota": 450.36}, {"date": "1990-05-01", "cota": 461.61}, {"date": "1991-01-01", "cota": 473.15}, {"date": "1991-11-01", "cota": 484.97}, {"date": "1992-08-01", "cota": 497.09}, {"date": "1993-05-01", "cota": 509.51}, {"date": "1994-02-01", "cota": 522.24}, {"date": "1995-05-01", "cota": 535.29}, {"date": "1997-02-01", "cota": 548.67}, {"date": "1999-08-01", "cota": 562.38}, {"date": "2000-07-01", "cota": 576.43}, {"date": "2001-04-01", "cota": 590.84}, {"date": "2002-06-01", "cota": 605.61}, {"date": "2003-08-01", "cota": 620.75}, {"date": "2004-10-01", "cota": 636.26}, {"date": "2005-10-01", "cota": 652.16}, {"date": "2006-12-01", "cota": 668.46}, {"date": "2008-03-01", "cota": 685.17}, {"date": "2009-03-01", "cota": 702.29}, {"date": "2010-07-01", "cota": 719.84}, {"date": "2011-10-01", "cota": 737.83}, {"date": "2012-10-01", "cota": 756.27}, {"date": "2013-10-01", "cota": 775.17}, {"date": "2017-01-01", "cota": 794.54}, {"date": "2018-08-01", "cota": 814.4}, {"date": "2020-01-01", "cota": 834.76}, {"date": "2021-10-01", "cota": 855.62}, {"date": "2022-04-01", "cota": 877.01}, {"date": "2023-02-01", "cota": 898.93}, {"date": "2023-04-01", "cota": 921.4}, {"date": "2023-09-01", "cota": 944.43}, {"date": "2025-05-01", "cota": 968.04}, {"date": "2026-06-01", "cota": 992.24}], "count_since": 37, "first_year": "1985", "cumul_pct": 134.9, "per_year": 0.9}, "backtest": {"lead": 6, "n": 11, "mae": 2.5, "median_abs": 2, "within2": 64, "bias": 1.3, "rows": [{"threshold": 918.17, "predicted_fr": "octobre 2022", "actual_fr": "mars 2022", "err": 7}, {"threshold": 941.12, "predicted_fr": "janvier 2023", "actual_fr": "juin 2022", "err": 7}, {"threshold": 964.64, "predicted_fr": "décembre 2022", "actual_fr": "janvier 2023", "err": -1}, {"threshold": 988.75, "predicted_fr": "juillet 2023", "actual_fr": "août 2023", "err": -1}, {"threshold": 1013.46, "predicted_fr": "juin 2025", "actual_fr": "avril 2025", "err": 2}, {"threshold": 1038.79, "predicted_fr": "février 2026", "actual_fr": "mai 2026", "err": -3}]}, "ma_series": [{"ym": "2020-10", "v": 878.97}, {"ym": "2020-11", "v": 879.73}, {"ym": "2020-12", "v": 880.18}, {"ym": "2021-01", "v": 881.88}, {"ym": "2021-02", "v": 881.36}, {"ym": "2021-03", "v": 882.99}, {"ym": "2021-04", "v": 884.74}, {"ym": "2021-05", "v": 887.22}, {"ym": "2021-06", "v": 889.52}, {"ym": "2021-07", "v": 890.73}, {"ym": "2021-08", "v": 894.4}, {"ym": "2021-09", "v": 896.23}, {"ym": "2021-10", "v": 899.33}, {"ym": "2021-11", "v": 903.01}, {"ym": "2021-12", "v": 906.33}, {"ym": "2022-01", "v": 910.27}, {"ym": "2022-02", "v": 916.09}, {"ym": "2022-03", "v": 923.26}, {"ym": "2022-04", "v": 930.37}, {"ym": "2022-05", "v": 936.68}, {"ym": "2022-06", "v": 944.33}, {"ym": "2022-07", "v": 950.31}, {"ym": "2022-08", "v": 954.51}, {"ym": "2022-09", "v": 957.56}, {"ym": "2022-10", "v": 960.72}, {"ym": "2022-11", "v": 963.34}, {"ym": "2022-12", "v": 963.76}, {"ym": "2023-01", "v": 965.06}, {"ym": "2023-02", "v": 967.48}, {"ym": "2023-03", "v": 970.01}, {"ym": "2023-04", "v": 972.61}, {"ym": "2023-05", "v": 975.66}, {"ym": "2023-06", "v": 980.22}, {"ym": "2023-07", "v": 984.78}, {"ym": "2023-08", "v": 989.04}, {"ym": "2023-09", "v": 992.93}, {"ym": "2023-10", "v": 995.34}, {"ym": "2023-11", "v": 997.1}, {"ym": "2023-12", "v": 998.07}, {"ym": "2024-01", "v": 998.89}, {"ym": "2024-02", "v": 999.69}, {"ym": "2024-03", "v": 1000.72}, {"ym": "2024-04", "v": 1002.11}, {"ym": "2024-05", "v": 1004.46}, {"ym": "2024-06", "v": 1006.97}, {"ym": "2024-07", "v": 1009.24}, {"ym": "2024-08", "v": 1011.17}, {"ym": "2024-09", "v": 1012.12}, {"ym": "2024-10", "v": 1012.15}, {"ym": "2024-11", "v": 1010.97}, {"ym": "2024-12", "v": 1010.02}, {"ym": "2025-01", "v": 1010.8}, {"ym": "2025-02", "v": 1011.57}, {"ym": "2025-03", "v": 1012.69}, {"ym": "2025-04", "v": 1015.3}, {"ym": "2025-05", "v": 1019.75}, {"ym": "2025-06", "v": 1024.27}, {"ym": "2025-07", "v": 1027.28}, {"ym": "2025-08", "v": 1030.48}, {"ym": "2025-09", "v": 1033.72}, {"ym": "2025-10", "v": 1035.62}, {"ym": "2025-11", "v": 1036.14}, {"ym": "2025-12", "v": 1036.63}, {"ym": "2026-01", "v": 1035.63}, {"ym": "2026-02", "v": 1034.45}, {"ym": "2026-03", "v": 1035.12}, {"ym": "2026-04", "v": 1038.35}, {"ym": "2026-05", "v": 1041.62}, {"ym": "2026-06", "v": 1044.8}, {"ym": "2026-07", "v": 1049.47}, {"ym": "2026-08", "v": 1054.27}, {"ym": "2026-09", "v": 1058.56}], "ipcn_series": [{"ym": "2020-10", "v": 881.26}, {"ym": "2020-11", "v": 879.44}, {"ym": "2020-12", "v": 881.92}, {"ym": "2021-01", "v": 885.06}, {"ym": "2021-02", "v": 878.96}, {"ym": "2021-03", "v": 891.32}, {"ym": "2021-04", "v": 891.74}, {"ym": "2021-05", "v": 894.29}, {"ym": "2021-06", "v": 895.78}, {"ym": "2021-07", "v": 892.31}, {"ym": "2021-08", "v": 900.97}, {"ym": "2021-09", "v": 902.29}, {"ym": "2021-10", "v": 910.36}, {"ym": "2021-11", "v": 916.38}, {"ym": "2021-12", "v": 915.64}, {"ym": "2022-01", "v": 915.97}, {"ym": "2022-02", "v": 935.9}, {"ym": "2022-03", "v": 945.29}, {"ym": "2022-04", "v": 953.03}, {"ym": "2022-05", "v": 954.27}, {"ym": "2022-06", "v": 961.51}, {"ym": "2022-07", "v": 951.88}, {"ym": "2022-08", "v": 961.1}, {"ym": "2022-09", "v": 963.57}, {"ym": "2022-10", "v": 971.97}, {"ym": "2022-11", "v": 970.0}, {"ym": "2022-12", "v": 964.07}, {"ym": "2023-01", "v": 959.62}, {"ym": "2023-02", "v": 975.67}, {"ym": "2023-03", "v": 978.71}, {"ym": "2023-04", "v": 987.6}, {"ym": "2023-05", "v": 988.26}, {"ym": "2023-06", "v": 991.47}, {"ym": "2023-07", "v": 986.95}, {"ym": "2023-08", "v": 1001.27}, {"ym": "2023-09", "v": 1002.01}, {"ym": "2023-10", "v": 1002.09}, {"ym": "2023-11", "v": 998.8}, {"ym": "2023-12", "v": 997.32}, {"ym": "2024-01", "v": 991.89}, {"ym": "2024-02", "v": 1006.03}, {"ym": "2024-03", "v": 1008.17}, {"ym": "2024-04", "v": 1010.47}, {"ym": "2024-05", "v": 1012.86}, {"ym": "2024-06", "v": 1012.37}, {"ym": "2024-07", "v": 1005.54}, {"ym": "2024-08", "v": 1017.63}, {"ym": "2024-09", "v": 1013.85}, {"ym": "2024-10", "v": 1010.64}, {"ym": "2024-11", "v": 1005.79}, {"ym": "2024-12", "v": 1006.69}, {"ym": "2025-01", "v": 1010.23}, {"ym": "2025-02", "v": 1022.23}, {"ym": "2025-03", "v": 1020.58}, {"ym": "2025-04", "v": 1026.25}, {"ym": "2025-05", "v": 1032.5}, {"ym": "2025-06", "v": 1033.81}, {"ym": "2025-07", "v": 1028.31}, {"ym": "2025-08", "v": 1041.45}, {"ym": "2025-09", "v": 1039.97}, {"ym": "2025-10", "v": 1037.67}, {"ym": "2025-11", "v": 1035.62}, {"ym": "2025-12", "v": 1036.77}, {"ym": "2026-01", "v": 1022.3}, {"ym": "2026-02", "v": 1034.35}, {"ym": "2026-03", "v": 1044.03}, {"ym": "2026-04", "v": 1057.0}, {"ym": "2026-05", "v": 1055.25}, {"ym": "2026-06", "v": 1055.87}, {"ym": "2026-07", "v": 1050.31}, {"ym": "2026-08", "v": 1063.18}, {"ym": "2026-09", "v": 1069.77}], "cota_series": [{"ym": "2020-10", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2020-11", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2020-12", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2021-01", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2021-02", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2021-03", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2021-04", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2021-05", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2021-06", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2021-07", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2021-08", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2021-09", "v": 834.76}, {"ym": "2021-10", "v": 855.62}, {"ym": "2021-11", "v": 855.62}, {"ym": "2021-12", "v": 855.62}, {"ym": "2022-01", "v": 855.62}, {"ym": "2022-02", "v": 855.62}, {"ym": "2022-03", "v": 855.62}, {"ym": "2022-04", "v": 877.01}, {"ym": "2022-05", "v": 877.01}, {"ym": "2022-06", "v": 877.01}, {"ym": "2022-07", "v": 877.01}, {"ym": "2022-08", "v": 877.01}, {"ym": "2022-09", "v": 877.01}, {"ym": "2022-10", "v": 877.01}, {"ym": "2022-11", "v": 877.01}, {"ym": "2022-12", "v": 877.01}, {"ym": "2023-01", "v": 877.01}, {"ym": "2023-02", "v": 898.93}, {"ym": "2023-03", "v": 898.93}, {"ym": "2023-04", "v": 921.4}, {"ym": "2023-05", "v": 921.4}, {"ym": "2023-06", "v": 921.4}, {"ym": "2023-07", "v": 921.4}, {"ym": "2023-08", "v": 921.4}, {"ym": "2023-09", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2023-10", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2023-11", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2023-12", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-01", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-02", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-03", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-04", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-05", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-06", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-07", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-08", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-09", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-10", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-11", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2024-12", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2025-01", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2025-02", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2025-03", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2025-04", "v": 944.43}, {"ym": "2025-05", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2025-06", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2025-07", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2025-08", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2025-09", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2025-10", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2025-11", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2025-12", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2026-01", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2026-02", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2026-03", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2026-04", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2026-05", "v": 968.04}, {"ym": "2026-06", "v": 992.24}, {"ym": "2026-07", "v": 992.24}, {"ym": "2026-08", "v": 992.24}, {"ym": "2026-09", "v": 992.24}], "erosion": {"since_fr": "juin 2026", "pct": 1.3}, "hicp": {"asof_ym": "2025-12", "rows": [{"geo": "LU", "rate": 3.3, "series": [{"ym": "2024-03", "v": 3.2}, {"ym": "2024-04", "v": 3.0}, {"ym": "2024-05", "v": 3.2}, {"ym": "2024-06", "v": 2.8}, {"ym": "2024-07", "v": 2.7}, {"ym": "2024-08", "v": 1.7}, {"ym": "2024-09", "v": 0.8}, {"ym": "2024-10", "v": 0.9}, {"ym": "2024-11", "v": 1.1}, {"ym": "2024-12", "v": 1.6}, {"ym": "2025-01", "v": 2.4}, {"ym": "2025-02", "v": 1.9}, {"ym": "2025-03", "v": 1.5}, {"ym": "2025-04", "v": 1.7}, {"ym": "2025-05", "v": 2.1}, {"ym": "2025-06", "v": 2.4}, {"ym": "2025-07", "v": 2.6}, {"ym": "2025-08", "v": 2.8}, {"ym": "2025-09", "v": 3.1}, {"ym": "2025-10", "v": 3.0}, {"ym": "2025-11", "v": 3.6}, {"ym": "2025-12", "v": 3.3}]}, {"geo": "BE", "rate": 2.2, "series": [{"ym": "2024-03", "v": 3.8}, {"ym": "2024-04", "v": 4.9}, {"ym": "2024-05", "v": 4.9}, {"ym": "2024-06", "v": 5.4}, {"ym": "2024-07", "v": 5.4}, {"ym": "2024-08", "v": 4.3}, {"ym": "2024-09", "v": 4.3}, {"ym": "2024-10", "v": 4.5}, {"ym": "2024-11", "v": 4.8}, {"ym": "2024-12", "v": 4.4}, {"ym": "2025-01", "v": 4.4}, {"ym": "2025-02", "v": 4.4}, {"ym": "2025-03", "v": 3.6}, {"ym": "2025-04", "v": 3.1}, {"ym": "2025-05", "v": 2.8}, {"ym": "2025-06", "v": 2.9}, {"ym": "2025-07", "v": 2.6}, {"ym": "2025-08", "v": 2.6}, {"ym": "2025-09", "v": 2.7}, {"ym": "2025-10", "v": 2.5}, {"ym": "2025-11", "v": 2.6}, {"ym": "2025-12", "v": 2.2}]}, {"geo": "FR", "rate": 0.7, "series": [{"ym": "2024-03", "v": 2.4}, {"ym": "2024-04", "v": 2.4}, {"ym": "2024-05", "v": 2.6}, {"ym": "2024-06", "v": 2.5}, {"ym": "2024-07", "v": 2.7}, {"ym": "2024-08", "v": 2.2}, {"ym": "2024-09", "v": 1.4}, {"ym": "2024-10", "v": 1.6}, {"ym": "2024-11", "v": 1.7}, {"ym": "2024-12", "v": 1.8}, {"ym": "2025-01", "v": 1.8}, {"ym": "2025-02", "v": 0.9}, {"ym": "2025-03", "v": 0.9}, {"ym": "2025-04", "v": 0.9}, {"ym": "2025-05", "v": 0.6}, {"ym": "2025-06", "v": 0.9}, {"ym": "2025-07", "v": 0.9}, {"ym": "2025-08", "v": 0.8}, {"ym": "2025-09", "v": 1.1}, {"ym": "2025-10", "v": 0.8}, {"ym": "2025-11", "v": 0.8}, {"ym": "2025-12", "v": 0.7}]}, {"geo": "DE", "rate": 2.0, "series": [{"ym": "2024-03", "v": 2.3}, {"ym": "2024-04", "v": 2.4}, {"ym": "2024-05", "v": 2.8}, {"ym": "2024-06", "v": 2.5}, {"ym": "2024-07", "v": 2.6}, {"ym": "2024-08", "v": 2.0}, {"ym": "2024-09", "v": 1.8}, {"ym": "2024-10", "v": 2.4}, {"ym": "2024-11", "v": 2.4}, {"ym": "2024-12", "v": 2.8}, {"ym": "2025-01", "v": 2.8}, {"ym": "2025-02", "v": 2.6}, {"ym": "2025-03", "v": 2.3}, {"ym": "2025-04", "v": 2.2}, {"ym": "2025-05", "v": 2.1}, {"ym": "2025-06", "v": 2.0}, {"ym": "2025-07", "v": 1.8}, {"ym": "2025-08", "v": 2.1}, {"ym": "2025-09", "v": 2.4}, {"ym": "2025-10", "v": 2.3}, {"ym": "2025-11", "v": 2.6}, {"ym": "2025-12", "v": 2.0}]}], "asof_fr": "décembre 2025", "lag_months": 9, "lu_ipcn_yoy": 2.9, "lu_ipcn_asof_fr": "septembre 2026"}, "track_record": {"n": 4, "since_fr": "juin 2026", "entries": [{"asof": "2026-06", "asof_fr": "juin 2026", "ma": 1044.8, "threshold": 1064.76, "median_ym": "2027-04", "median_fr": "avril 2027", "p10_fr": "novembre 2026", "p90_fr": "octobre 2027", "prob_next_year": 74}, {"asof": "2026-07", "asof_fr": "juillet 2026", "ma": 1049.47, "threshold": 1064.76, "median_ym": "2027-04", "median_fr": "avril 2027", "p10_fr": "décembre 2026", "p90_fr": "août 2027", "prob_next_year": 80}, {"asof": "2026-08", "asof_fr": "août 2026", "ma": 1054.27, "threshold": 1064.75, "median_ym": "2027-03", "median_fr": "mars 2027", "p10_fr": "décembre 2026", "p90_fr": "août 2027", "prob_next_year": 85}, {"asof": "2026-09", "asof_fr": "septembre 2026", "ma": 1058.56, "threshold": 1064.75, "median_ym": "2026-12", "median_fr": "décembre 2026", "p10_fr": "novembre 2026", "p90_fr": "février 2027", "prob_next_year": 97}]}}